Whence the bounce?
September 18, 2012 Leave a comment
Nice post from Nate Cohn looking at where Obama’s bounce came from (this is improvement in approval ratings):
The mean improvement is 6, so the key is to look at groups where the improvement was substantially more than that. And survey say: Hispanics. Cohn summarizes:
If nothing else, the DNC solidified the support of Obama leaning voters. Obama’s largest gains came among Hispanics, independents, non-white voters, moderate Democrats, and high school educated voters. In contrast, seniors, Republicans, and conservatives barely budged in Obama’s direction, if at all. Predictably, liberal Democrats and postgraduates held relatively firm as well, perhaps since Obama had already maximized his gains among those core constituencies. On balance, this suggests the DNC acted generally consolidated Obama’s existing coalition rather than persuade genuine converts.
I think one of the most telling (and good for Obama) indicators is that not just his performance vis-a-vis Romney has improved, but that his approval has climbed close to 50%.