Too much money?
August 16, 2012 3 Comments
In Monday night’s daily wrap-up, Nate Cohn noted the ungodly sums that Romeny and allies were spending in various media markets:
For the last month, Romney and allies have outspent Obama by more than a 2-to-1 margin. At some point, one would expect this type of deluge to start moving the needle, right? But perhaps the static race is just a sign that the Romney campaign’s advertising has reached the point of diminishing returns with just under three months to go until the election. Roanoke-Lynchburg is receiving 2520 GRPs from Romney and his allies, and if 1,000 per campaign is the rule for saturation, then how much are GOP groups really getting out of the final 1520 points? Perhaps not much: Obama hasn’t trailed in a Virginia poll since June and Rasmussen has shown Obama making gains in Virginia in every poll since April (R+1, tie, O+1, O+2).
Now I have no expertise in this GRP business, but if 1000 is considered saturation, than it should be no surprise that Romney’s 2500+ GRP spending is not “moving the needle.” As I’m pretty sure I’ve argued before, the thing with money is to have enough to compete on some semblance of a level field– and even 2-1 Obama’s got that. If Obama’s only spending roughly 1200 GRP, that’s still more than saturation. Seems to me that rather than trying to buy up every single minute of air time (to surely enormously diminishing returns) in places like Roanoke, VA, Romney ought to be finding some uses for this money with more marginal benefit.