Obama in NC: it’s the immigrants
August 7, 2012 Leave a comment
No, not like that, it’s simply the non-native North Carolina residents who have moved to the state in recent years that are affording Obama his small lead. Check out this very interesting graph from the latest PPP poll:
Check out that moved here in last 10 years split– wow! Alas, this does not apply to me because I moved here 10 years plus 2 weeks ago. Though, I am very fitting in moving to Cary (Containment Area for Relocated Yankees). Safe to say much of this immigration is among well-educated white-collar professionals to the Charlotte and Triangle (Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill) areas.
There’s also some more interesting breakdowns. The gender gap here in NC is particularly large:
There’s an enormous gender gap in North Carolina with Obama leading 57-38 among women, but trailing 56-40 with men. Romney has a 48-44 lead with independents but Democrats can lose by that margin with independents and still win overall in North Carolina as long as they keep their party base in check and for now Obama’s doing that, taking 82% of the Democratic vote. Obama’s up 91-7 with African American voters- any thought that his position on gay marriage would hurt him on that front can be cast aside. And he’s only down 58-38 with white voters- if he can stay in that mid to upper 30s range with white voters it will probably be enough to put him over the top.
Several years ago I wrote a paper (with Laurel Elder and Kyle Saunders) trying to explain why the gender gap seemed to vary so much across states. The results weren’t good enough to get published anywhere, but here’s a bit from the abstract:
In this paper, we use state-level data to try and understand the sources of variation in the gender gap in the 2004 election. Regression results suggest that state gender role culture, as measured by percent of women in the legislature, and state religiosity, as measured by percent Christians, both significantly explain the gap while other possible sources such as state political culture and state demographics fail to have a significant explanatory impact.