The turnout election
July 10, 2012 Leave a comment
Latest Washington Post poll has Obama and Romney tied on it and Ezra’s got some very interesting thoughts on the matter. I think these two figures he highlights are key:
Short version: even more so than most elections this election is really not about changing minds, but getting like-minded supporters actually to the polls and voting. One of the reasons the Republican voter ID laws are so insidious. It’s also a very useful perspective for thinking about what the campaigns will be doing in coming months. Yes, every vote really counts, but they are presumably going to get more back for the buck with efforts that energize supporters than efforts to try and persuade a shrinkingly small portion of the public to change their minds. And perhaps the Obama campaign should take some solace in that only 4% of Obama supporters think there’s a “good chance” they will change their mind versus 12% of Romney supporters, but I’m not sure how much stock to put in that question.