May 24, 2012 Leave a comment
I don’t have much to comment on the matter, but I found this Atlantic piece on how sophisticated quantitive analysis and subsequent breeding has turned the modern dairy cow into a super-producing milk machine to be really fascinating. Some tidbits:
Data-driven predictions are responsible for a massive transformation of America’s dairy cows. While other industries are just catching on to this whole “big data” thing, the animal sciences — and dairy breeding in particular — have been using large amounts of datasince long before VanRaden was calculating the outsized genetic impact of the most sought-after bulls with a pencil and paper in the 1980s.
Dairy breeding is perfect for quantitative analysis.Pedigree records have been assiduously kept;relatively easy artificial insemination has helped centralized genetic information in a small number of key bulls since the 1960s; there are a relatively small and easily measurable number of traits – milk production, fat in the milk, protein in the milk, longevity, udder quality — that breeders want to optimize; each cow works for three or four years, which means that farmers invest thousands of dollars into each animal, so it’s worth it to get the best semen money can buy. The economics push breeders to use the genetics.
The bull market (heh) can be reduced to one key statistic, lifetime net merit, though there are many nuances that the single number cannot capture. Net merit denotes the likely additive value of a bull’s genetics. The number is actually denominated in dollars because it is an estimate of how much a bull’s genetic material will likely improve the revenue from a given cow. A very complicated equation weights all of the factors that go into dairy breeding and — voila — you come out with this single number. For example, a bull that could help a cow make an extra 1000 pounds of milk over her lifetime only gets an increase of $1 in net merit while a bull who will help that same cow produce a pound more protein will get $3.41 more in net merit. An increase of a single month of predicted productive life yields $35 more.
I always tell those pursuing PhD’s in Political Science to really learn their statistics because even if they cannot land a tenure track job, there’s all kinds of avenues open to them with a strong statistical background. Little did I realize that it could be useful for putting them into the dairy farming world. Honestly, that kind of number crunching sounds like a lot of fun to me. But, I think I’ll stick with data on American public opinion.