Annals of pointless polling results
May 15, 2012 1 Comment
Recent Gallup poll on Obama’s new position on gay marriage finds 13% more likely to vote for him, 60% no difference, and 23% less likely. Uh-oh– net negative! Or not. Check out the full table:
Most of that overall 26% comes from the more than half of Republicans who are now “less likely” to vote for Obama. Sorry, but you cannot be “less likely” than “already not going to vote for that socialist, terrorist-sympathizer no matter what.” This would seem to be much more an expression of their dissatisfaction with Obama’s new position than any honest assessment of their likelihood of voting for Obama. We can be confident that somewhere in the neighborhood of 90% of Republicans will be voting for Romney in November and in no way are nearly half of them up-for-grabs in any sort of meaningful way whereas what Obama says about gay marriage could conceivably make a difference.