The latest polling on NC's same-sex marriage amendment

PPP released a poll earlier this week that suggests the tide is moving against the anti gay marriage (anti-gay, period) amendment.   Support for the amendment is still a good bit over 50%, but the recent movement and the underlying dynamics of opinion suggest there is a very real possibility this amendment is defeated (though, I’d still put my money on passage):

Momentum is turning against North Carolina’s proposed marriage amendment.  PPP’s newest poll finds only 54% of voters in the state planning to support it, while 40% are opposed. This is the lowest level of support PPP has found in monthly polling of the amendment since last October. When PPP first polled on it six months ago 61% supported it with only 34% opposed, so its current 14 point lead has been cut almost in half from the 27 point advantage it started out with.

Here, I think is the key bit (which I’ve mentioned before)

There is some reason to think a huge upset in two weeks is within the realm of possibility. 53% of voters in the state support either gay marriage or civil unions, with only 44% opposed to any recognition for same sex couples. The proposed amendment would ban both gay marriage and civil unions, but voters continue to be confused about that. Just 36% correctly identify that it would ban both while 26% think it bans only gay marriage, 10% think it actually legalizes gay marriage, and 27% admit that they don’t know what it does.

When voters are informed that the proposed amendment would preclude both marriage and civil unions for gay couples only 38% continue to support it with 46% in opposition. Voters obviously will be more tuned into the amendment debate over the final two weeks of the campaign than they have been to date, particularly as the against side’s tv ads hit the air, and it seems quite possible that as voters become more and more informed about the amendment they will continue to move more and more against it.

Also interesting to see where the movement is coming from:

The main movement over the last month has been with Democratic voters. Previously they were almost evenly divided on the amendment but now they’re moving against it with only 38% still in support and 56% opposed. A big part of that is a shift among black voters. They still support it by a 51/39 margin, but that’s well down from 61/30 on our a poll a month ago.

The poll also highlights the huge young vs old divide, thought that’s nothing new.  The reason I still think that the amendment will likely pass is that a primary electorate skews older than a general election electorate.  But for those in opposition, there’s definitely a chance.  Seems to me the key is the opposition forces really getting the information out there so that people actually understand what they are voting for.  If that happens, they win.

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