Democratic dream in Delaware?

Just last week, the Post ran a story about how Joe Miller’s very surprise win in the Alaska Republican primary had given enough of a scare to Delaware Republican front-runner, Mike Castle, that he would take his tea party challenger very seriously and not suffer the same fate as Lisa Murkowski.  Apparently, it’s not good enough just to be warned.  Especially, when you truly are a very moderate Republican this year.  The reason that Castle is favored to win the Senate in Delaware is that his reputation as a true moderate will bring in many Democratic votes.  That reputation may now be an albatross in the Republican primary, though.  Here’s the latest from PPP:

It looks like there’s a real possibility of a major upset in the Delaware Senate primary on Tuesday night, with insurgent conservative Christine O’Donnell leading longtime Congressman and Governor Mike Castle 47-44. That 3 point lead is well within the poll’s margin of error.

If Castle is indeed defeated Tuesday night it will be yet another sign that conservatives have a strangle hold on the Republican Party and moderates may or may not be welcome anymore. Castle has an overwhelming 69-21 lead with moderate voters but they only make up 33% of the likely primary electorate. O’Donnell has a 62-31 lead with conservatives that’s more than enough to propel her to the overall lead.

It’s clear that Castle’s popularity has taken a sharp turn in the wrong direction over the last month. An August PPP poll found his favorability with Delaware Republicans at a 60/25 spread. Now his favorables within the party are negative at 43/47. That’s largely a product of 55% of voters in his party saying they think he’s too liberal compared to 37% who think he’s about right.

If O’Donnel wins this election, it is the Tea Party basically handing a Senate seat to the Democrats.  I suppose you’ve got to admire their passion, but stategery is not their forte.  A conservative Republican simply does not win the Delaware Senate seat.  A moderate one, can, and would then vote with Republican Senators 80-90% of the time anyway.  If O’Donnell wins, the seat will almost surely go to a Democrat who will vote with Republicans 10% of the time at best.  Go O’Donnell!!

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