My election predictions
November 3, 2008 Leave a comment
I've had a good year of electoral prognostication. Might as well go ahead and put it on the line by making official election-eve predictions. Here goes:
Popular vote: Obama 53; McCain 46 (whatever “Bradley effect” there is will be more than countered by the “cell phone” effect in Obama's favor).
Electoral college: 367 for Obama (Kerry states plus IA, VA, NV, CO, NM, FL, NC, OH, ND and either MO or IN)
Senate: +7 Democrats; Dole goes down in NC
House: I haven't been following this closely at all, but I'll say +26 Dems
Other: I'll predict Bev Perdue just squeaking out a victory for Governor in NC, which she will entirely to Obama's NC ground game.
If you are in NC, look for my sure-to-be provocative and insightful analysis tomorrow night on WUNC-TV
[Somehow, I forgot to mention a bunch of red-to-blue states the first time I did this-- I think I've got them all now]